What's the future of broadcasting?

A friend of mine asked me about what I thought the future held in terms of radio and television broadcasting, especially considering all of the emerging technologies in the mix. I thought you might want to hear what I shared:

Mike,

In a nutshell, I think that TV and radio continue to be a robust business, yet very different than the industry I entered 23 years ago. In a lot of ways it's better: more stable operators, better wages, more accountability, better programmed stations. In many ways it's worse: worse at public service, less connection to community, less opportunities for jobs for young people (when one announcer can voice track two dozen stations from central location, it's hard for a kid to get a break).

I differ with you on the promise of satellite. I think in both TV and radio, it's huge. But it may soon be eclipsed by internet radio, and the I-pod and podcasts. The entrance of fiber to the last mile will only make more bandwidth available, not change what's on the data streams.

All of this diversity will make not only each format, but each technology into a niche. I-pods will attract young people, true lovers of music, and business travelers. Terrestial radio for activists and low-income consumers. Satellite for high-income consumers. I think the technology chips will fall as they may.

Finally, if I had the cash to pick up a station with a footprint over a viable community, I would grab it. Because if I got the programming right, I could play in all of the above technologies except satellite. And that's the great thing about creating good content and spreading it around. And remember, one analog FM station means three digital ones...and that's cool!

God bless,
Joel